YouTube – the death of Flash

Following on from my post about the iPad & while I’ve time to write …

There are a number of posts around at the moment talking about the ‘death of flash‘ many that have come out in the past 48 hours (like this one) talk about how Apple will be the death of Flash.

Apple’s closed ecosystem will be the death of flash

They base their thinking around the fact that Apple’s mobile Safari browser doesn’t support the flash plugin. This is true and it would seem Apple leveraged this fact to give a big ‘finger’ to Adobe on the public stage with the launch of the iPad.

As Daring Fireball pointed out, “If you think Apple didn’t expect that, you’re nuts” (link). Apple new it, I’d almost go as far to say as they planned it.

However Apple, in my opinion are NOT going to be the death of Flash.

Sidenote: Adobe haven’t helped themselves here – some of us have been calling for massive improvements in Flash on the OSX platform for years. Flash is not as good on OSX as it is on Windows, AIR is terrible on OSX – why should Apple willingly inflict this experience onto mobile users?

Youtube, the saviour and executioner of Adobe Flash

If you ask anyone what was the number one driver in the uptake of Flash, YouTube has to be very high on their list. Sure for those of us who started with Flash back in the day (I started working with it when it was called Future Splash – before Macromedia bought it) it was probably something to do with animations, the ability to show an idea, or maybe to play games? There was a lot of thinking for a while around Flash being used for form data capture to improve User Experience, but really, think about it, what really propelled Flash to the dizzy hight’s of success? The answer has to be video. Yes there is more to Flash than video, but really what is it that people are concerned about?

I want my rich media content – or – I want my online videos to play on my device.

Video really became the saviour and champion of Flash. Sure Flash is great for gaming, it can be good for simplifying user experience (sometimes) but really, it triumphs in the area of Video delivery. It is the KING for this and is used by everyone from YouTube to NYTimes. YouTube wouldn’t be what it is today without Flash

However, while people are saying Apple is the death of flash, they don’t realise that YouTube (and Vimeo) have just nailed a significant nail in the coffin of Flash this week. Both video sites announced the roll out of HTML5 inline video support & YouTube.

The shift to HTML5 signals some interesting changes in the life of the internet:

• YouTube has the potential to be a game changer in the browser market (Internet Explorer doesn’t support HTML5 video)
• YouTube has the potential to be a game changer in the rich media market (no more dependency on Flash)

Think for a moment. When was the last time you engaged with any Flash based content in your browser? I’m going to hazard a guess that content you interacted with was video based.  You had to wait for the controls to load, you had to wait for the video to buffer and then you had to play it.

What if you didn’t need too? What if the video was just there, and it played natively?

This will be the death of Flash – if we no longer need Flash for our rich media (video) content, then .. what is the future of Flash?

What about games & rich content?

I hear you. I’m not necessarily saying that this shift to HTML5 is going to kill flash overnight. Hell, it’s going to take time – YouTube are not about to instantly switch from Flash to HTML5 and loose the hundreds of millions of Internet Explorer visitors – but you can bet they will PUSH Google Chrome to these people and set too, migrating them away from Internet Explorer.

I also hear you saying “Flash is more than video” – and yes, trust me, I’ve been in the Flash community long enough to know this. I experimented with very early interactions between Flash and databases, I built visually rich, content rich web solutions for the likes of Toyota, and many other large companies. However it no longer makes sense to do that today. AJAX gives you much greater user experience than Flash, an experience that is more natural and fluid. HTML5 builds on this to give the browser back the power it was intended to have all along.

Flash is an incredible platform, and it will continue to be that, for games. But I’m really struggling to see any real future for Flash outside of “in browser gaming”. Even Adobe’s own AIR platform provides the ability to build in HTML and AJAX … why would you build in Flash?

What about rich content & graphs? Google Analytics is probably a great example of Flash used well, however, show me almost ANYTHING in Google Analytics that the guru’s at Google couldn’t do with HTML5 and AJAX? They use Flash simply because it works in the current Internet Explorer versions (5, 6, 8 etc), the same as it does in Firefox, Safari or Chrome. You do realise Google could simply say “To get the best from Analytics, you should use Google Chrome” and once again, we hear the death null of a nail in Flash’s coffin (not to mention a big wakeup call to Internet Explorer – 9 btw: is supposed to be very good!).

Seriously, can you really think of a reason to use Flash – outside of a Game in the browser? Maybe the odd speciality thing like TinyChat or Adobe Connect … okay, I’ll give you that.

Games in the browser on mobile? Are you really going to play a game in the browser on your mobile phone? No, you are going to download the game and play it as the developer intended. Besides, any Flash developer worth their salt now knows that you can render Flash content to native iPhone and iPad apps – they’ll get a much better user experience by delivering their game to the device, than to the browser.

Summary

Sure, Apple’s closed ecosystem has it’s draw backs, but it’s not Apple’s closed ecosystem, nor Mobile Safari’s lack of Flash (am I right in thinking that ONLY Andriod and SkyFire mobile browsers support flash, none of the rest do) that will be the death of Flash.

The iPad and iPhone won’t kill Flash, infact the ability to build in Flash and deliver rich content to the iPad and iPhone could continue to keep Flash developers in money & work for a long time yet.

If you want games on your iPad or iPhone, you’ll download them
If you want voice chat, or Video chat, you’ll get an app that does it smoothly and simply

No, I think that it’s Youtube that will be the death of Flash, at least the death of Flash as we know it. Flash will be relegated out of prime time and off into the murky world of “browser plugins” and “game platforms” – the return & rise of the “click here to install flash” link is nigh.

So long Flash, and thanks for all the fish

Cavet

I was for a long time Flash developer & champion, Studiowhiz used to be a large Flash focused community. I have been involved in the past with Beta testing Macromedia & Adobe products. I’ve always said, and still maintain, Flash has a place in the web, as a solution to a need. YouTube is a perfect example, Flash for media, html for content. This is the game that is changing, it always changes, Flash needs to change if it is to survive.

The iPad & Why you are probably NOT the target audience

Unless you were in some time vortex over the past 36 hours you no doubt know that Apple released the iPad, a 3:4 screen with basic computer features. This iPad launched with the usual hype of Apple product launches, and of course  every Apple gear head and iPhone user thought “oh wow” and then “oh stink”

What were you expecting?

Steve Jobs is well known for saying:

Apple will not produce a netbook computer for under $500

Why is EVERY ONE comparing the iPad to a netbook? Oh well okay there is THIS picture from the Apple launch I guess:

But here Steve wasn’t saying that Apple is creating a netbook, rather he’s saying there is a gap in the gadget sector between smart phones and traditional computers (be they laptops or desktops). He’s saying everyone else is filling them with ‘netbooks’ – take what’s good about computers and make them smaller. Apple are look at this differently, take what’s good about smart phone devices and make them bigger.

There are some key items here to remember. A netbook is NOT a full computer, so there are some things you just can’t do on them. A tablet is NOT a smart phone, so again there are things you just can’t do – they don’t make sense to do.

The Apple team have seen what they think is the best fit in this market, they’ve ignored the “trends” and created what THEY believe is the best fit. Sometimes in life that is the hardest thing to do, just because everyone else is doing XY and Z doesn’t mean that’s right.

The complaints

Lets look at some of the complaints from different places. Gizmodo have a list of reasons why NOT to buy the iPad – lets address some of these.

• No Multitasking: This is probably the ONE thing I’ll agree with, there should be some way to run more than ONE app at a time. Just because it doesn’t right now, doesn’t mean it wont. I think it will. Some apps like Pandora may make sense – but then 99% of the target audience won’t know what Pandora is & the built in iPod will be their music player of choice and that DOES run in a multitask mode. So you want to listen to music – use the iPod.
• No Cameras: This I just don’t get. I don’t see WHY you want a device the size of a magazine with a camera in it? You’ve got your point & shoot digital camera, your mobile phone probably has a camera and your computer has a webcam. How many cameras do you want? I just don’t see the NEED for this device to have another camera. (update: don’t bother saying “video calls” .. if you are tech savy enough for video calls, you won’t be using this device)
• No HDMI out: HDM what now? Seriously, go ask your Mum or Dad what HDMI is. Actually ask almost anyone outside of a BestBuy employee or gadget freak and they’ll go …. ??? what? Again, this is a personal device, why do I want HDMI on it? If I want to share media with my TV I’m a bit of a gadget freak, therefore I probably have some Media computer already (XBMC, Boxee, Apple TV etc), or my iMac has EyeTV or … again, I’m probably out of the target audience for this device. HDMI just doesn’t make sense
• No Flash: Why is everyone SO upset about this, and why am I not? For those of you in the know I once was a big Flash proponent (I’m a published author on Flash technology) – but to me Flash has done it’s job & it’s being replaced (more on that in “Youtube – the death of Flash”). Don’t get me wrong, Flash is great for Games and it was great for video, but both Youtube & Vimeo are moving to HTML5 video support. The Flash argument (which is not flash on the iPhone or iPad, but Flash in mobile safari) is mute – you want flash on your device – for what? Video? Move to HTML5 and be done with it.
• Adapters for everything: Of course you need adapters, you are trying to get this device to do something outside it’s primary function. You have to adapt it to do it. It’s a WiFi device .. not USB, not HDMI or others. You want to import photos from your camera? Okay use a USB adapter … OR use an eyeFi card in your camera – I’m sure it wont be long before eyeFi support the iPad.
• No expandable memory, microSD etc: If you are looking to add extra content to the iPad you are poo outta luck. But why do you need too? The iPad is on wifi – store your media, books, music on your main computer, then simply get what you want when you need it. You are not going to import photos from your camera to the iPad – no, you’ll put them on your main computer and then sync only the good ones (the ones in focus) to your iPad. You are only going to store video media on here until you watch it. You won’t store 50 movies on this, 3 or 4 maybe (if you are taking your iPad on a trip), so sync up the ones you want and be done with it. There isn’t a need for memory card readers (& if you really want to, there is an adapter for it)

What is the primary target for the iPad?

Okay, so I’ve said many times above that most of the complaints against the iPad are coming from the current iPhone generation. We are having “well knowing” 16 year old kids – the future of technology – calling the iPad an iFail. Seriously? What does a 16 year old know?

A 16 year old has vastly different needs than the average iPad user. The 16 year needs a netbook, or laptop and an iPhone. They want to be connected, they want to take photos and share them instantly, they want to interact and they want to control what they install on their device. This is not what the iPad is for.

Let be give you an example of where I think the *almost* perfect situation for the iPad is. (biased to my situation of course). Here at home we have 1 computer, its an iMac, we have an old 21″ CRT tv and I have an iPhone. Our iMac happens to be running an eyeTV USB adapter to become our primary TV. My wife is a book NUT & had been considering the Nook (the fact that is not out in NZ is beside the point).

Often in the evenings, we want to relax and watch some TV, while doing that it’s sometimes nice to check email from family, update the family blog, read up on the newspapers & tech blogs, maybe do a bit of Twitter and Facebook – casual internet. But of course when the TV is on the iMac (we hardly use the old CRT one) it’s hard to multi task and do email. An iPad would fit nicely on our wifi network and allow us to casually surf the net. We coud find recipes and save them, my wife could book mark craft ideas to do with our 2 year old and we could order movie rentals etc for the weekend.

Of course we love to read books (my wife more than me) so for her to have at her finger tips hundreds of thousands of books – is awesome.

My wife is not a great gadget freak – she’s your typical mum. Happy with what ever mobile phone she has (can it place calls and get SMS?), she loves our iMac, but hates the fact it cost so much (Apple prices in NZ are not cheap!). This is the FIRST device she’s looked at, and within 60 seconds she was “You mean you could get rid of all this (pointed at the book shelf) and I could have that? And do email?”

If I had the cash, it’d be the ONE gadget I could now go and buy with her blessing, without having to “explain” to her why we need it. (we don’t have the cash, and it’s a luxury so we won’t – but you get the idea)

Sumamry

The iPad isn’t intended to be a kill all to the kindle, nook and Netbooks of the world. It’s meant to be a complimentary connectivity and media device. It compliments the other digital devices in your life. It brings the power of the internet into a simplified device.

You want to make phone calls – use your mobile phone
You want to do skype chats & video chats – use your computer
You want to stream media to your TV – use your media center
You want to do video scrubbing, audio production – use your media suite

You want to casually surf the web, read the paper with a coffee, flip through a magazine, update your email, check your your new niece on facebook, send out a tweet and read a book – use your iPad

The iPad is not revolutionary, it’s just a hunk of metal & glass
BUT it does it’s job and it does it well.

How I slashed 10 years off my mortgage

Mortgages – something most “grown-ups” have these days. Big heavy things that rest around your neck for 20, 30 or 40 odd years. I’ve even heard of some UK based mortgage companies allowing people to take on mortgages to be passed onto their kids.

Mortgages – the evil (?) that allow us to buy homes, businesses and other large scale items that in theory help us live our lives.

My mortgage has 26 years to run on it, it’s burning through my income like nothing else, and right now in the housing market the way it is, I’m not seeing the returns on the property that I might have 10 years ago. Still I’m not that far into the whole house ownership thing to worry about that. Sadly as mortgages as structured in the first few years you pay mainly interest, and a little principal.

My mortgage is up for renewal and an opportunity presented itself for me to make some significant in-roads into my mortgage.

How I slashed 10 years off my mortgage

Last time I renewed I was caught by the raising interest rates, the falling economy and a few other factors. My wife and I decided that we’d lock in at an “okay” interest rate for 18 months. That rate was just under 9% pa.

This meant we scrimped and fought for every cent & dollar to live – but at least we managed to pay the mortgage.

Now, 18 months on, we survived that time of tightness & sure we don’t have the new lounge suite, nor Sony Alpha DSL or 50″ Plasma TV and our kitchen isn’t finished.  But we made it.

Of course we are about to renew the mortgage at the current interest rate of just over 6% pa. That’s just shy of a 3% drop.

It dawned on us that we’ve already be paying $WXYZ a fortnight & haven’t really missed it (okay so we have missed it but…we survived) – so lets leave the repayments as they currently are. Sure it’ll continue to be a bit tight for another year or so – but we’ll slash 10 years off our mortgage & save ourselves hundreds of thousands of dollars in interest!

Learnings

If you have a mortgage, pay as MUCH as you can. You will be amazed how much difference $10 a fortnight can make. If you can go to $50, $100 or more … then do it. Sacrifice a little now – to gain a LOT down the track! Do you really need THAT 50″ Plasma or will your current TV do? Do you really need an iPhone or will your Nokia be fine for another year?

* note: of course I realise that in 12 months time when I renew again, interest rates will have changed and 10 years might end up being 8 years … but any year OFF the mortgage is a great year!

Challenges in life

Life’s one of those funny things, when you are in the middle of it there is always lots going on. When you look back, you wonder – what did I really do? What have I achieved? Of course the start of a new year is often prime time for thinking about these sorts of things.

How many times have you pondered: “how many hours did I waste in the office last year?” – don’t get me wrong (esp if my work mates or boss is reading this), I enjoy my job, even more so now that I’ve some new areas of responsibility. But life is too short to spend it all wrapped up in an office. I spend on average 8 – 10 hours a day sitting at a desk working. I’m blessed that my job is one that I am passionate about. Hey, I work in the web & mobile spaces – two topics I can easily talk & dream about all day long.

In 2010 however I want to explore ‘life‘ itself more. Of course 2 and a bit years ago my wife and I welcomed our darling little girl into our lives – she has taught me more about life than I think I’ve taught her about the world (alphabets etc). Coming home at the end of a day to see her at the back door with a big grin “Dadddddy” – yeah that’s life! To sit here trying to blog, with her banging away on the fireplace with a broken wooden spoon – it’s annoying, but it’s life.

So, what is 2010 going to hold for you? For me it’s going to be a challenge, a huge challenge. I’ve new areas of responsibility at work which excite (and scare) me. My wife and I are considering a new place to live, which leads us to the “do we sell this house or do we rent it out” type questions. And then I go and decide I want to race in the Transsyberia Rallye!

I’ve set up a whole project, website & twitter account for the Rally Challenge 2010 – and I encourage you to go check it out. Needless to say, I think once in a while we need to tackle and try the impossible. I might make it, I might not, but at least I’ll get to the end of 2010 & sit back with a beer and be able to say “Dang, I gave that a darn good crack & had a heap of fun on the way!”

So what are you doing for 2010?